Strongest ever … and man caused global warming’s fault?

The headlines on Typhoon Haiyan’s landfall in the Phillipines are hyperbolic about it being the biggest ever with massive, unprecedented casualties and so on. Luboš Motl takes a look at the numbers — Typhoon Haiyan: similar unspectacular cyclones arrive every 2-3 years

“All the mistakes are completely obvious and demonstrable, as I will argue below, but it is impossible to even fix basic errors on the Wikipedia page, or elsewhere. Such pages are being controlled by obsessed hardcore climate alarmist trolls and crackpots. They are just completely blind and deaf to any evidence and they revert any edit that would try to fix the basic mistakes.”

“The casualties depend on the trajectory and the good or bad luck (and the population density and the resilience of the buildings in the relevant places, and so on). The physical strength of the strongest tropical cyclones is most naturally measured by the minimum central pressure.”

“If you focus on the table for that basin, you will see than Haiyan is between 21st and 35th strongest cyclone in that region since the 1950s or so. In 60 years or so, one gets 21-35 cyclones just in that region that are equally strong or stronger. In other words, every 2-3 years, one gets a cyclone of the equivalent or greater magnitude. The Pacific Ocean has already witnessed something like 1-3 billion of similar or stronger typhoons.”

Then there is that ‘climate warming’ thing. One sample does not a confirmation make, especially if that sample is misrepresented.

It is a terrible tragedy and things need to be done. Those ‘things’ are not about abstract anti-capitalist environmentalism but rather about lifestyle and preparedness for natural disasters that can be anticipated as normal occurrances.

Comments are closed.