Peak oil? Gas too expensive?

Mark Perry says 2010 Was a Very Good Year for New Oil Finds. The message for the pessimists is that we are still finding things on the planet and it is tough to have a peak when you keep discovering more.

Last year was a really good year for new oil discoveries, there were at least 14 major oil discoveries in Brazil alone totaling 13.5 to 26.7 billion barrels, … In addition, there were more than 30 billion barrels discovered in other parts of the world in 2010 … With oil now selling now at close to $90 per barrel, we can expect even more discoveries in 2011.

Another post shows that the Time Cost of Gas Is Less Than Half the Cost in 1940.

the time cost of a gallon of gas, measured by the number of minutes of work at the average hourly manufacturing wage (BLS data here) required to purchase a gallon of gas at the nominal, retail price in each year between 1939 and 2010 (EIA data here).

It took just slightly less than 9 minutes of work at the average hourly wage of $18.56 last year to purchase a gallon of gas at the average price of $2.77 per gallon in 2010.  That’s a lower time cost than in all of the years between 1939 and 1958, and less than half the time cost of gas in the 1939-1941 period.

Don’t worry. Denial is strongly in place. Peak Oil is coming. Real Soon Now ™. Gas costs more than even and people can’t afford to live any more (or will Real Soon Now(tm) ). The data is a year old (or more) so it doesn’t reflect today’s reality.

Of course, if you are an optimist and like to look at the empirical side of things, then you have a lot going for your viewpoint. Not only in fossil fuels but also consider China’s 60 fold uranium energy gain thinking about reprocessing or the Japanese investors behind the California rare earth mines. When the demand is there, a supply or alternative will be found if given the chance.

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